How Russia’s Military Is Positioned to Threaten Ukraine

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Armored vehicles

Other military or air installations

Around 100,000 Russian troops

have been deployed near the

Ukrainian border.

Forces deployed north of

Ukraine could stretch

the country’s forces thin and

threaten its capital, Kyiv.

KAZAKHSTAN

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

Persianovskiy

Nearly 20,000 troops are near two

breakaway provinces, where Ukraine

has been locked in a grinding

war with Russian-backed

separatists since 2014.

Rostov-on-Don

SEA OF AZOV

Novoozerne

CASPIAN SEA

Armored vehicles

Other military or air installations

Around 100,000 Russian troops

have been deployed near the

Ukrainian border.

Forces deployed north of

Ukraine could stretch

the country’s forces thin and

threaten its capital, Kyiv.

KAZAKHSTAN

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

Persianovskiy

Nearly 20,000 troops are near two

breakaway provinces, where Ukraine

has been locked in a grinding

war with Russian-backed

separatists since 2014.

Rostov-on-Don

SEA OF AZOV

Novoozerne

CASPIAN SEA

Armored vehicles

Other installations

Around 100,000 Russian troops

have been deployed near the

Ukrainian border.

Forces deployed north of

Ukraine could stretch

the country’s forces thin and

threaten its capital, Kyiv.

KAZAKHSTAN

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

Persianovskiy

Rostov-on-Don

CASPIAN SEA

SEA OF AZOV

Nearly 20,000 troops are near two

breakaway provinces, where Ukraine

has been locked in a grinding

war with Russian-backed

separatists since 2014.

Novoozerne

Other installations

Armored vehicles

Around 100,000 Russian troops

have been deployed near the

Ukrainian border.

Forces deployed north of

Ukraine could stretch

the country’s forces thin and

threaten its capital, Kyiv.

Nearly 20,000 troops are near

two breakaway provinces, where

Ukraine has been locked in a

grinding war with Russian-backed

separatists since 2014.

Other installations

Armored vehicles

Around 100,000 Russian troops

have been deployed near the

Ukrainian border.

Source: Rochan Consulting. Yelnya image from Planet Labs; December 29, 2021. Novoozerne image from Maxar; October 18, 2021. The New York Times

A build-up of Russian forces near the border with Ukraine has raised concerns among Western and Ukrainian officials that the Kremlin might be preparing for significant military action, possibly an invasion. This map, compiled by The New York Times, shows troops, tanks and heavy artillery moving into positions that threaten to widen the conflict in Ukraine’s east as well as potentially open a new front on Ukraine’s northern border, closer to the capital, Kyiv.

Russia currently has about 100,000 troops on the Ukraine border, according to Ukrainian and Western officials. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that the Kremlin has drawn up plans for a military operation involving up to 175,000 troops that could begin in the coming weeks. While it is not clear whether President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has decided to launch an attack, analysts say the country is well on its way toward constructing the architecture needed for a significant military intervention in Ukraine.

On Monday, representatives from the United States and Russia will meet in Geneva for talks aimed at de-escalating the crisis. Mr. Putin has said that Russia wants what he calls security guarantees, which would, among other things, bar the United States and NATO from expanding eastward into regions the Kremlin deems as within its sphere of influence.

This map represents a snapshot of current Russian positions, as well as broad estimates of the number of troops and kinds of equipment deployed within striking distance of Ukraine. It is based on information obtained by Ukrainian and Western officials as well as independent military analysts and satellite imagery.

Much of the build-up so far, according to officials and military analysts, has involved troops and equipment that take time to deploy, including tanks and heavy armor, some of which have traveled by train from bases as far away as Siberia.

Before launching a significant military operation, however, Russia will likely need to deploy reserve soldiers and logistical infrastructure, like field hospitals, that currently appear to be missing from positions near Ukraine, analysts say. These elements along with additional troops could be deployed rapidly should a decision be made to attack.

Much of the attention so far has been directed at the build-up of forces near two breakaway provinces in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, where since 2014 the Ukrainian military has been at war with Russian-backed separatists. The separatist forces, which include Russian troops and Ukrainian fighters opposed to Kyiv’s rule, amount to about 30,000, according to an assessment by the Ukrainian military.

Eastern Ukraine

Armored vehicles

Other military or air installations

Luhansk

Motorized infantry unit

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

Military analysts say Russian troops

deployed to Ukraine’s east could

be used to seize additional territory

from Ukrainian control, beyond

what has already been taken by

Russian-backed separatists.

32,000 troops

in Eastern Ukraine

Donetsk

Motorized infantry unit

Persianovskiy

Two tank units

Motorized infantry unit

Rostov-on-Don

Motorized infantry unit

Artillery unit

Southern Military District

Army Corps

SEA OF Azov

Armored vehicles

Other military or air installations

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

Luhansk

Motorized infantry unit

Military analysts say Russian troops

deployed to Ukraine’s east could

be used to seize additional territory

from Ukrainian control, beyond

what has already been taken by

Russian-backed separatists.

32,000 troops

in Eastern Ukraine

Donetsk

Motorized infantry unit

Persianovskiy

Two tank units

Motorized infantry unit

Rostov-on-Don

Motorized infantry unit

Artillery unit

Southern Military District

Army Corps

SEA OF Azov

Armored vehicles

Other installations

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

Military analysts say Russian

troops deployed to Ukraine’s

east could be used to seize

additional territory from

Ukrainian control, beyond what

has already been taken by

Russian-backed separatists.

32,000 troops

in Eastern Ukraine

Persianovskiy

Rostov-on-Don

SEA OF Azov

Armored vehicles

Other installations

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

32,000 troops

in Eastern Ukraine

Persianovskiy

Rostov-on-Don

Since the start of 2021, Russia has moved an additional five battalion tactical groups into the border area near Luhansk and Donetsk, including about 5,000 soldiers sent to reinforce the 12,000 or so stationed there permanently, according to Ukrainian authorities. Just as significant, according to officials and military analysts, are the forces massing north of Ukraine in areas such as Klintsy, at the point where the Ukrainian, Russian and Belarusian borders meet. These positions are within easy striking distance of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.